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Bernie Sanders Is Even Less Competitive Than He Appears – DAVID WASSERMAN (538)
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-is-even-further-behind-in-votes-than-he-is-in-delegates/
Excerpt:
From 2008 to 2016, the average turnout in primary states as a share of the Voting Eligible Population has fallen from 20 percent to 14 percent. In caucus states, it’s fallen more modestly, from 4.4 percent to 3.7 percent.
.. applied these average declines to the remaining 17 states and Washington, D.C. .. There may be around 12.1 million votes left to be counted. … Sanders would need to win about 60 percent of remaining voters and caucus attendees to overtake Clinton in popular votes — a very tall task for someone who’s only captured 42 percent up until now.
…
The much more likely scenario is that Clinton’s popular vote lead continues to expand until the race’s June 7 grand finale.
…
——
I had wondered about the total votes count downshift from 2008 to 2016. This answered that question. The latter parts of the extract are interesting and germane analytical observations by the author.
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https://www.facebook.com/notes/james-rogers-bush/two-frauds-in-a-pod-and-a-love-that-is-true/1064794860243516
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James, this is very good. Hope you have tweeted it. If so, can you give the tweet link? thanks.
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Wyoming – not so bad actually!
http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/wyoming
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Scroll down to around mid-way down to the table:
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/WY-D
Currently, we at Sanders: 8; Clinton: 6 delegates. Total = 14. Yet to be certified.
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So, with that..
Running Total:
Delegates: Clinton: 1309; Sanders: 1095
SuperDel: Clinton: 476; Sanders: 37; O’Malley: 1; Uncommitted: 200
Total Dele: Clinton: 1785; Sanders: 1132
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Sam, this is way better than expected for Hillary. For her to end up with at worst a net delegate loss of 2 in Wyoming is tremendous.
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Exactly!.. I just posted above the current snapshot, incl Super Delegs.
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I think she was helped by absentee ballots like she was in Nebraska, but Bill’s visit to WYO this week may have helped keep the margin down, too. I love that she won the most populous county, lol.
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Yes she was. Exactly! She won the most populous county!! In Laramie, a lot of absentee ballots — i.e., Hillary’s voters who couldn’t go to caucus were careful enough to send in the ballots!! . Even Sanders going there to give his Wisconsin victory speech did not overcome that.
This tells us that caucuses do not favor Hillary because our voters are unable to go for specific times and sit through for long periods. Caucuses need to be abolished.
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wow. Delegate match worked in Hillary’s favor. It’s looking like 7 delegates each!!!
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/WY-D
Total
Delegates 14 Sanders 7 Clinton 7
Woot, woot!!! 🙂
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And I read that the Sanders people were expecting a major blowout. So Sanders nets only 10 delegates total from Wisconsin and Wyoming, two states he should have dominated. Great job by everyone on Hillary’s team!
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Sam, I also forgot that Wyoming was a closed caucus, which favored Hillary.
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Yes, Closed definitely favored Hillary. GOPers were done with theirs, so they could have caused real havoc otherwise.. Open primaries and caucuses need to end. If the objective is to get Independents, can say party or undeclared. But not from another declared party.
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Well, I don’t live near New York anymore but I sent in an additional donation because I want to see those big margins in New York. Hillary has the opportunity to crush Sanders and right now the polls are decidedly in her favor. She sounds very optimistic as do her campaign people. Might be why St Bernard and his surrogates are so cranky. Boo-hoo.
I’m wondering if St Bernard’s Very Bad, Terrible Week muted the Wyoming results. Another week like this last one and he’ll be toast.
Couldn’t happen to a nicer group :0).
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Thank you! lol, they’ve gonna see what a mountain the st. has got to climb when even the lilly white WY only yields him a draw on delegates! HAHA!
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