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Posts Tagged ‘Nate Silver’

At the Women for Women event yesterday, Hillary Clinton again raised the James Comey letter.   At the time that letter was released, 11 days before Election Day, many of us were intentionally avoiding watching or citing polls. When Hillary brought that letter up again in the interview with Christiane Amanpour, some pointed out that she had since consulted polls and particularly Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.  So, for clarification, here is Nate’s analysis of the effect of that letter on the polls from two days before Election Day.

Nov. 6, 2016

How Much Did Comey Hurt Clinton’s Chances?

And is it too late for his second letter to help her?

Edited May 3 to add this.

This is the tenth article in a series that reviews news coverage of the 2016 general election, explores how Donald Trump won and why his chances were underrated by most of the American media.

Hillary Clinton would probably be president if FBI Director James Comey had not sent a letter to Congress on Oct. 28. The letter, which said the FBI had “learned of the existence of emails that appear to be pertinent to the investigation” into the private email server that Clinton used as secretary of state, upended the news cycle and soon halved Clinton’s lead in the polls, imperiling her position in the Electoral College.

The letter isn’t the only reason that Clinton lost. It does not excuse every decision the Clinton campaign made. Other factors may have played a larger role in her defeat, and it’s up to Democrats to examine those as they choose their strategy for 2018 and 2020.

But the effect of those factors — say, Clinton’s decision to give paid speeches to investment banks, or her messaging on pocket-book issues, or the role that her gender played in the campaign — is hard to measure. The impact of Comey’s letter is comparatively easy to quantify, by contrast. At a maximum, it might have shifted the race by 3 or 4 percentage points toward Donald Trump, swinging Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Florida to him, perhaps along with North Carolina and Arizona. At a minimum, its impact might have been only a percentage point or so. Still, because Clinton lost Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by less than 1 point, the letter was probably enough to change the outcome of the Electoral College.

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Yesterday, Hillary Clinton declared herself a private citizen and part of the Resistance.  #StillWithHer?  I sure am! Let’s go!  ¡Vamos! En allez!  I would follow Hillary Clinton anywhere.  I have that much faith in her.  If she is a ReSister, I am too.  In 2008, when people asked me why I was so dedicated to Hillary, my short answer was “Because she is scary smart, and I need scary smart.”  Well, things are scary now, and she is smart. That’s my leader.

 


Edited to add this bulletin from The Boston Globe.

Comey says he doesn’t regret disclosing Clinton probe

FBI Director James Comey told the Senate Judiciary Committee on Wednesday that he doesn’t regret his decision to disclose the reopening of the Hillary Clinton e-mail investigation in the days before the 2016 election.

He told the panel that while the notion that he affected the election made him “mildly nauseous,” concealing that information would have been “catastrophic.”

To read more, visit: www.BostonGlobe.com.

Can anyone help me understand why concealing the Trump/Russia investigation was OK but not disclosing this would have been “catastrophic?”

 

 

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